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Drew Martin
  • Event: (101) San Francisco 49ers at (102) Kansas City Chiefs
    Sport/League: NFL
    Date/Time: February 2, 2020 6PM EST
    Play: 3% – San Francisco 49ers 1.5 (-110)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    All Prop Bets below:

    Prop Bet #1:
    What will the Chiefs do first? Score (-115) Punt (-105) at South Point
    The Kansas City offensive explosion of late is creating value on the "What will the Chiefs do first" prop. Yes, Kansas City is an explosive offense with one of the best QB's in the NFL. However, I am betting on a slow start, like we have seen of recent in Super Bowls, the extended pregame, hectic fanfare and entertainment have played a role in offenses getting off to a slow start. Plus, the fact that the Chiefs offense is off back to back games with three and outs to start their 1st offensive possession. A three and out vs the Houston Texans including a false start penalty and an incomplete pass, in addition to a three and out vs Tennessee, with a sack and an incompletion in the AFC Championship game. Add in the fact, the Chiefs are going up against arguably the best defense in the NFL. My numbers show value at the cheap price of (-105). I strongly recommend a bet on the Chiefs punting, before scoring.

    Prop Bet #2:
    Which will happen 1st by Patrick Mahomes, Interception (+300) or TD (-380) at MGM
    Pat Mahomes is a great player, but this bet is stricly off price and by my numbers this price is off. Mahomes is a young QB playing in the biggest game of his life against arguably the best defensive line he has faced. Throw in the fact that it is the Super Bowl with all the extra entertainment and timing off before football actually gets going, all pointing towards mistakes offensively. Most importantly the 49ers defense is aggresive, causing 7 tournovers this postseason alone (Only 2 games). 3 interceptions. At a +300 return I am betting an interception before a TD for Mahomes.

    Prop Bet #3:
    To throw 1st interception, Jimmy G (-165), P. Mahomes (+145) at MGM
    Correlated with the above prop bet, my numbers show this worthy of action as well. Yes, both QB's are young, playing in the biggest game of their carreers. However the defensive oppositions, more specifically the defensive fronts they are going against are not equal. It shows in the most recent games with each defense tournover numbers caused: KC defense has 0 interceptions and 1 forced fumble. SF defense has 3 interceptions and 4 forced fumbles this post season. Lastly, P. Mahomes is lined to have 7 more pass attempts, leaving more situations for an interception to happen. I bet P. Mahomes to throw a INT before Jimmy G at a +145 price tag. (No interceptions= No action)

    Prop Bet #4
    Will there be a score in the first 6:00 of game, Yes (-110) No (-110) at BetOnline
    Super Bowl atmosphere has not been good for early offense of late. The timing effects the offense and the defenses have taken advantage of that fact in recent history. At an even price for the 1st 6 minutes no scoring, my numbers show value with the no. SF defense is one of the best KC will face. Plus, KC defense has improved down the back half of the year and SF offense has shown it is happy keeping the ball on the ground and grinding clock. I bet no score first 6:00 (-110)

    Prop Bet #5 (Entertainment/ Offshore)
    Fireworks heard right after "Bombs bursting in air" (Anthem Special) +175 Yes, -260 No
    I have seen more games in this stadium (Joe Robbie, Hard Rock Stadium and all the other names inbetween) than any other stadium in my life. Growing up in south Florida, watching the  Dolphins, Canes, Marlins play here. Since they put the new cover on top of the stadium and about a half of billion dollars into it, the firework system is the best I have ever seen. They have both large and small fireworks blasting off all the time. I believe the odds makers at BetOnline are off on this line. There is a good chance they send off fireworks right when this portion of the anthem is said. Remember, they have the ability to send off small fireworks that are quick and not overwhelming. At a +175 underdog pricetag I bet YES.


     

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