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  • Event: (509) Houston Rockets at (510) Los Angeles Lakers
    Sport/League: NBA
    Date/Time: February 6, 2020 10PM EST
    Play: 3% – Los Angeles Lakers -7.5 (-110)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%   Take the LA Lakers (#510)

    Mike D’Antoni made the decision to start playing full-on ‘small ball’ with his Rockets lineup four games ago, with a rotation lacking a single player taller than 6’5”.  In the four games since that switch of styles, Houston finished -11 in rebounds vs the Blazers, -19 against the Mavericks, -20 against Pelicans and -12 against the Hornets.  None of those four opponents are particularly good rebounding teams.  The Lakers are.

    The Rockets were able to win and cover against the Pelicans thanks to a bevy of unforced New Orleans turnovers.  They were able to win and cover against the Hornets thanks to a late flurry of three pointers; taking 60 of their 97 shot attempts from three point range against a team that lacks a low post presence.  Teams that don’t rebound while standing around on the perimeter jacking up three pointers aren’t likely to have great success against the #3 defensive team in the NBA; especially a team like the Lakers who dominate the glass on a nightly basis (+54 on the boards in their last three games alone).

    Expect LA to get the extra possessions with a significant rebounding edge tonight – extra possessions matter!  Expect the Rockets to be stuck on the perimeter shooting jumpers.  And with the Lakers breaking out of their ‘post- Kobe-tragedy’ slump with back-2-back blowouts, I have little hesitation betting on them to do it again tonight!  Chalk worth laying.  Take the Lakers

    Line Parameter: 3% at -8 or lower, 2% at -8.5 or higher

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