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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (511) Dallas Mavericks at (512) Washington Wizards
    Sport/League: NBA
    Date/Time: February 7, 2020 7PM EST
    Play: 4% – Dallas Mavericks -2.0 (-103)
    Play Rating: 4%
    Result: Loss

    4%  Take Dallas (#511)

    My clients and I have cashed a small handful of winning bets supporting Dallas since Luka Doncic got hurt.  Tonight’s game in DC provides us with another ‘positive expectation’ opportunity to back this undervalued Mavs team right now.  Let me start with an excerpt from my last pro- Mavericks write-up:

    “Dallas won’t have All Star point guard Luka Doncic in the lineup tonight, and the betting markets are ‘knee-jerk’ reacting to his absence.  But the Mavs have already shown they can win without Luka.  Doncic missed five games in December (hurt two minutes into the first of those contests). During that span, the Mavs beat the Sixers in Philly and the Bucks in Milwaukee in straight up fashion!  The combination of Jalen Brunson and Delon Wright might not equate to Luka’s brilliance, but they’re a pair of steady, competent hands at the point.”

    The Mavs are coming off a poorly played home loss to Memphis.  Make no mistake about it – Dallas has been a ‘bet-on’ squad all the way following a loss; now 15-4 SU and ATS coming off a single defeat.  Rick Carlisle was not amused by that showing against the Grizz: "Ugly game for us.  We’re going to have to do a lot better. I'm going to have to do a better job of getting these guys ready."

    Washington is getting a fair bit of respect in the betting markets today after getting rookie PF Rui Hachimura and center Mo Wagner back in the lineup earlier this week.  But Washington just traded away their bench depth, most notably backup point guard Isaiah Thomas, and I’m not convinced recently acquired Shabazz Napier (if he suits up) will be capable of filling that void.  Cheap price to lay with a playoff team off a loss vs a lottery bound foe.  Take the Mavericks.

    Line Parameter: 4% at -3.5 or lower, 3% at 4 or higher