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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (877) Illinois Chicago at (878) Wright State
    Sport/League: CBB
    Date/Time: February 14, 2020 9PM EST
    Play: 3% – Illinois Chicago 11.0 (-110)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%  Take Illinois -Chicago (#877)

    The knee jerk reaction here – and the early morning betting market action supporting Wright State – is all about a senior laden favorite at home with revenge.  In fact, it’s not just revenge; it’s triple revenge!   The Flames have beaten the Raiders outright as underdogs in each of the last three meetings between these two squads and Wright State hasn’t won by more than seven points against UIC since 2017. 

    The database shows that teams like Wright State are not profitable in this role.  Double digit home favorites in double revenge (Wright is, obviously, in double revenge as well as triple revenge) are a very modest 60-81 (42%) ATS since 2016; not exactly a profitable subset.  Wright State might be a Horizon League title contender, but they’re not covering as chalk; 4-11-1 ATS when laying -5 or higher so far this season.

    Illinois-Chicago is on the other end of the ATS equation.  With four solid seniors – Tarkus Ferguson, Godwin Boahen, Michael Diggins and Marcus Ottey – the Flames have been tough to beat by margin and tough on the highway.  They’ve got a 10-3 ATS mark as a dog of +15 or lower.  They’ve won SU four times in their last six road games, and the two losses came by a combined three points.  Expect a battle, not a blowout!  Take Illinois – Chicago (UIC).

    Line Parameter: 3% at +10 or higher, 2% at +9.5 or lower