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Nick Borrman
  • Event: (207873) Kayserispor at (207874) Fenerbahce
    Sport/League: SOC
    Date/Time: March 20, 2020 1PM EDT
    Play: 5% – Fenerbahce -1.5 (-120)
    Play Rating: 5%
    Result: No Play

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    Turkey Super Lig

     

    The Turkish football governing body insist that league matches will continue despite the global coronavirus epidemic, but behind closed doors with no fans in attendance

    (207873) Kayserispor at (207874) Fenerbahce

    Fenerbahce have been on a tough run, winless in their last six games, but they have faced Galatasaray and Trabzonspor during that run, two of the top three teams in the league while drawing against Denizlispor and Antalyaspor, both mid-table teams.  Kayserispor by contrast is a far-cry from those sides and is currently bottom of the table in the league with a 5-7-14 record and horrible 28:62 goal differential which represents the most goals conceded in the league by 12 goals!  On the road they have been nothing short of terrible with a 1-2-10 record and 12:42 goal differential, 14 more goals allowed than the next closest side and they have nine losses by more than two goals and have allowed four goals or more seven times.

    Fenerbahce, even with their recent bad run still have a +12 goal differential with an 11-7-8 record includng at home where they are 7-3-2 +15.  They have 2+ goal wins over strong teams including Besiktas and Basaksehir.  They actually lost 0-1 at Kayserispor back in November but outpossed them 66% to 34% and outshot them 23 to 11 with 6 on goal compared to just one for Kayserispor and recently knocked them out of the Turkish Cup with a 2-0 home win, outshooting them 16-0 (!) with nine on goal.  Knowing those numbers ahead of time, I would take this line in either game every time.

    This match sets up as a good rebound chance for Fenerbahce and a good chance at much needed three points to keep pace for a Europa League qualification for next season.

    TAKE FENERBAHCE -1.5

    Line Parameter: 5% to -1.75, but pay up to -130 to get -1.5

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