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Andrew McInnis
  • Event: (24013) Ray Borg at (24014) Ricky Simon
    Sport/League: MMA
    Date/Time: May 13, 2020 9PM EDT
    Play: 5% – Ricky Simon -165
    Play Rating: 5%
    Result: Win


    With UFC 249 behind us, it was time to dive right in to Wednesday night’s UFC Fight Night. I read dozens of articles breaking down a bunch of the fights taking place and I arrived at Ricky Simon as my strongest play of the card, so strong that I feel it is worthy of  rare 5% play. 

    Ricky Simon enters this match-up with a 15-3 record and has won 53% of his fights via decision, a form a victory that is HEAVILY favoured in this match-up. Simon is averaging 2.96 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent; he’s averaging 6.53 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Looking at some history of Ricky Simon’s fights, you can see that he was riding an 8 fight win streak before he lost back to back fights and unfortunately was on the losing side of a fight of the night. Based on my research, Simon is a proven physical take down artist that can wear you down and ground and pound you throughout an entire fight. On the other side of things, Borg is also an outstanding grappler but the argument I’m presenting is that Simon just has plenty more ways to beat you and score points against you.  Anyone that’s looking at Simon coming off the losses he’s coming off of and looking down upon him for them probably don’t realize that Ray Borg would’ve lost to those exact same fighters. The current odds for the over 2.5 rounds with these two is up to as high as -310 at some shops - which tells us that it’s promising for this to go the distance, something that isn’t very surprising since 8 of Simon’s last 11 fights have gone the full distance. 

    The outcome in this bout will result in who the better grappler is but that’s not to say that Ricky Simon won’t be able to hold his own on his feet, because he will be able to, and it will be a difference-maker in this fight. Being the bigger fighter doesn’t always mean you will be the successful fighter, however in this one the reach and size difference will mean a lot. Simon is 2 inches taller and has a 6 inch reach advantage which will REALLY help him keep his distance and maintain control on his feet. Simon will be able to do a great job of defending take downs and control when he wants to go to the ground and get some shots in while he’s defending takedowns. 

    The #1 biggest thing for Ricky Simon is game plan, being able to follow the game plan he and his team are planning to roll with. If Simon follows this game plan he will be too much to handle for Borg and he will win by decision after 3 rounds.  It’s important to mention as well that Borg has only had 2 wins in his career by KO or TKO - this fight going the distance is very promising and Ricky Simon will win by decision. 

    Play Simon here to get things done. 

    Good to -185