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Nick Borrman
  • Event: Bayer Leverkusen at Werder Bremen
    Sport/League: SOC
    Date/Time: May 18, 2020 2PM EDT
    Play: 4% – Bayer Leverkusen -0.75 (-110)
    Play Rating: 4%
    Result: Win

     Germany Bundesliga

    (202433) Bayer 04 Leverkusen at (202434) SV Werder Bremen

    Hard to argue form for teams that have been off for two months, but it's worth noting that these two teams were heading in opposite directions before the league was suspended.  Leverkusen was playing exceptionally well with 11 wins in 13 matches after the holiday break with one draw and one push including three Europa League wins and they all but punched their ticket to the quarterfinals after winning 3-1 at Rangers in the first leg after disposing of a good Porto team in the first round.  They scored two or more goals in 11 of those games and three or more in eight games.  They currrently sit 5th in the table, four points back of RB Leipzig and a win will bring them within a point of the last Champions League qualifying spot.

    Werder Bremen is in line to be relegated as they sit 2nd from the bottom with a 4-6-14 record and ugly 27:55 goal differential, conceding the most goals in the league.  They had six losses in their last eight games and failed to score in five of those games while conceding at least two goals in every match.

    These teams played to a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture but Leverkusen doubled up Werder Bremen in shots, taking 21 but they managed just four on goal compared to ten shots and three on goal for Werder Bremen.  If we see similar shot attempts again, expect more on goal from Leverkusen and assuming average conversion rates, a win on the road.

    For all the reasons above, I also like the Over in this match as well.

    TAKE BAYER LEVERKUSEN -0.75

    Line Parameter: 4% at -0.75 up to -130, 3% at -1.0

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