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Recent Play Details

Nick Borrman
  • Event: Hoffenheim at Paderborn
    Sport/League: SOC
    Date/Time: May 23, 2020 9AM EDT
    Play: 3% – Hoffenheim -0.25 (-120)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Half Loss

    Germany Bundesliga

    (53965901) Hoffenheim at (53965902) SC Paderborn 07

    Hoffenheim lost 0-3 at home against Hertha Berlin this past weekend but in watching that match, it's hard to argue they weren't the better team and actually had plenty of scoring chances just had some very poor execution.  They won the xG battle by anywhere from a 1 to 1.5 goals depending where you look and were very unlucky with this result.  They scored an own goal for Hertha Berlin's first goal and Hertha Berlin scored on a very difficult shot for their third goal that had no business going in.  They put up 18 total shots but only managed two on goal while they probably should have been able to get seven or eight on goal.

    Meanwhile, Paderborn looked lifeless in a 0-0 draw at Dusseldorf, another bad side.  They manage just seven total shots with one on goal and never really threaten to score the entire game.  They are dead last in the table with a 4-5-17 record and -24 goal differential and even at home are just 2-1-10 this year.  

    Hoffenheim won the reverse fixture 3-0 at home in a game they controlled from the beginning and I think we will see them control this game as well.  Hoffenheim was favored by -1.25 in that gome game and to get a full goal drop in the line on the road is a lot.  Usually you see -0.5 up to -0.75 so catching this full goal is good value and I think a draw is worst case so I see this as a half-wager risk to win a full wager.

    TAKE HOFFENHEIM -0.25

     Line Parameter: 3% on the 3-way ML to -110, 2% to -125.  You can also take them on the 3-way ML instead of -0.25 where they are currently +110 to +115.  I am just playing it a little safer and limiting our loss if they game ends in a draw  

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