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ASA
  • Event: (903) San Francisco Giants at (904) Los Angeles Dodgers
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: July 23, 2020 10PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-140)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    ASA PLAY ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 10:08 PM ET

    First off, you won't find us laying 3 to 1 odds on a money line in any game. But we can get a reasonable price (-135/-140 range as of Monday night) by utilizing the run line (-1.5 runs) in this match-up and there is plenty of support for expecting a lopsided game at Dodger Stadium Thursday night. Last season the Giants went an incredible 38-16 in one-run games. That is a credit to former manager Bruce Bochy (and a bit of luck too) to be able to win that many close games. Now enter new manager Gabe Kapler (former Phillies skipper) who is not in the same class that Bochy was. Bochy is the only manager in major league history to win at least 900 games with two different teams. By comparison Kapler just had two seasons with a Phillies team that was very talented and yet didn't have a winning season in either campaign. The fact is that the Giants are not a very good team and the point is that they would have had an even uglier record last season were it not for their strong performance in 1-run games. How likely is a blowout loss here? The Giants went 39-69 in games decided by 2 or more runs last season and now appear worse off than last season after the manager change and in looking at their roster. Also, the Giants enter the season a bit banged up and that includes the fact that they are down to their 3rd string catcher! Their #1 catcher Buster Posey elected to not play in this shortened season and the #2 guy Aramis Garcia is out until at least mid-August due to hip injury. That means Johnny Cueto will not be throwing to a typical battery-mate and remember he is still on the comeback trail from Tommy John surgery. That is why Cueto has only started 13 games the past two seasons. By comparison, Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw has started 54 games the past 2 seasons and had a record of 10-2 in his home starts last year. The Dodgers saw 79 of their 106 wins last season come by a victory margin of at least 2 runs. Per our computer math model, this one will too. Lay it as LA puts a whipping on SF in this NL West season opener Thursday! Bet the Dodgers -1.5 runs in late night action Thursday.

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