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ASA
  • Event: (957) Miami Marlins at (958) Philadelphia Phillies
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: July 24, 2020 7PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+105)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    ASA PLAY 3* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:05 PM ET First off, you won't find us laying 2 to 1 odds on a money line. But we can get great value here (+105/+100 range as of Thursday night) by utilizing the run line (-1.5 runs) in this match-up. With that said, there is plenty of support for expecting a lopsided game at Citizens Bank Stadium Friday evening. The Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball. Last season Miami went 57-105 and that included an ugly 27-54 in road games. Not only do they lose 2 out of every 3 road games but how likely is a blowout loss here? The Marlins lost 77 games by 2 or more runs last season! That means about 3 of every 4 Miami losses comes by a margin of multiple runs. The Phillies saw 61 of their 81 wins last season come by a victory margin of at least 2 runs. Per our computer math model, this one will too. The Phillies Aaron Nola allowed only 2 earned runs in 14 and 2 / 3 innings of work at home against the Marlins last season. Overall at home Nola dominated last season (charged with just 2 losses all season) as he held opponents to a .219 batting average while racking up a 2.91 ERA! Miami starts Sandy Alcantara here and he is a respectable starter. However, the Phillies have given him some trouble and hit him quite hard. In Alacantara's match-ups with Philly in 2019 he was hit at a .333 clip. Alcantara allowed 27 hits plus walked 7 against the Phillies in 18 and 2 / 3 innings. That is nearly 2 base runners allowed per inning and that leads to trouble in no time. The Marlins are again projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball while the Phillies should challenge for the NL East title in this shortened 60-game season. This is a mismatch in terms of the lineup and the pitching and a strong play on the home team is in order here. Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday.

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