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  • Event: (737) Milwaukee Bucks at (738) Miami Heat
    Sport/League: NBA
    Date/Time: September 4, 2020 6PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Miami Heat +5.5 (-110)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

     3% Take Miami (#738)

    I used the same basic write-up for Game 1 and Game 2; both ‘right side’ winners taking the Heat plus the points.  I’m going to use an excerpt here:

    “If this game was played back in February, today’s ‘neutral floor’ pointspread would be wholly appropriate.  But if you are grading these two teams since they entered the bubble in Orlando — as I am at this stage of the process — this game grades out fairly close to pick ‘em.  The Heat matched up well with Milwaukee in the regular season; beating them twice.  In their only regular season loss to Mike Budenholzer’s squad, Miami led the Bucks 73-56 at halftime (their only meeting in the bubble), despite playing without Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic, before a 20-0 fourth quarter run with Miami sitting starters allowed the Bucks to escape with a fraudulent win and cover. 

    “The Heat match up well with Milwaukee.  Bam Adebayo has proven to be an effective defensive shadower on Giannis in every regular season meeting.  The Bucks lone defensive weakness is from three point range; the Heat have multiple three point shooters on the floor for the entire 48 minutes.  The Bucks offensive strengths — fast breaks and points in the paint — are both problematic against the Heat, who allowed the fewest fast break points in the league and rank among the Top 5 in paint protection. Take Miami plus the generous points, but be sure to sprinkle at least a little something on the moneyline, backing a team that has yet to lose a game since the playoffs started.”

    How much better can Milwaukee play?  They hit more three’s, shot better from the field, had more assists and more blocked shots and still lost by double digits in Game 1.  They got their miracle in the final 17 seconds of Game 2; an impossible rally from six points down -- and still couldn’t win the game, despite an off night offensively from Jimmy Butler.  Miami isn’t five points worse than Milwaukee on this floor – even desperate Milwaukee, who, if you remember got swept out of the playoffs after taking a 2-0 lead against Toronto last year.  As long as the betting markets are being this generous with the Heat, I’m getting involved again.  Take the Heat.

    Line Parameter: 3% at +4.5 or higher, 2% at +4 or lower