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  • Event: (741) Toronto Raptors at (742) Boston Celtics
    Sport/League: NBA
    Date/Time: September 5, 2020 6PM EDT
    Play: 5% – Boston Celtics +1.5 (-110)
    Play Rating: 5%
    Result: Loss

     5% Big Ticket: Take Boston (#742)

    The Celtics finished five games behind the Raptors in the regular season, but right now, Boston is clearly the better of these two teams.  If you were drafting the players in this series, at least three of the top four picks would be Celtics – maybe the Top 3.  I know Boston needed a Marcus Smart explosion to win Game 2, and were unable to pull away in Game 3. 

    But let’s not forget – in both cases, they were facing the defending champs coming off a loss; a max intensity spot.  This time around, it’s Boston coming off the hard to swallow loss, and I’m expecting the Celtics to play like their hair is on fire.  Here’s the quote from Jaylen Brown “That was just a f---ing disgrace at the end of the game. That was just terrible. No way we should have lost that game. I take responsibility for that. Not just that play, but a lot of the plays before. And it happens. This is the NBA playoffs. Either you let them gain momentum or you come back and be ready to play next game."

    Boston has been mispriced since the start of the playoffs: 6-1 ATS in seven postseason games, with an average ATS margin of victory of more than seven points per game.  Their lone ATS loss came in a game they controlled, but Philly hit a pair of looooong three pointers in the final 30 seconds to get under the number.  The Celtics are 3-0 ATS as underdogs in this series; now 18-6 (75%) for the full season when catching points.  Wrong team favored here; plain and simple.  Big Ticket: Take the Celtics

    Line Parameter: 5% with Boston as an underdog, 4% if Boston is pk or a favorite