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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (975) Texas Rangers at (976) Seattle Mariners
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: September 6, 2020 4PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Seattle Mariners -125
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

     3% Take Seattle (#976) (action)

    Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up yesterday supporting the Mariners in their 5-3 win over the Rangers.  Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities:

    “Right now, the Texas Rangers are as lifeless as any team in baseball; an easy team to fade in this price range.  They’ve lost 16 of their last 19 overall, and have notched just four road wins in 19 tries since the season began, a truly dismal track record.  Seattle is in a completely different space energy-wise than their ‘we’re mailing it in already’ opponent.  The Mariners are coming off four straight wins and eight victories in their last eleven overall.  Modest chalk worth laying!”

    The betting markets aren’t enamored with Seattle starter Justin Dunn – his strikeout rate is low, his walk rate is high, his fly ball rate is high and opposing hitters BABIP is an unsustainable .178.  While the markets are fixating on his advanced metrics, Dunn has thrown back-2-back six inning one hit gems inhis last two outings and he’s shut down the Rangers twice already, to the tune of a .108 batting average against.  Seattle’s bullpen behind him is in excellent shape today, rested and ready.  Rangers starter Jordan Lyles has allowed 12 runs on 17 hits in nine innings of work against Seattle in two previous starts against them this season, and their bullpen behind him took yet another loss last night; a dismal unit in terrible current form.  Take the Mariners.

    Line Parameter: 3% at -140 or lower 2% at -141 or higher