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  • Event: (469) Miami Dolphins at (470) San Francisco 49ers
    Sport/League: NFL
    Date/Time: October 11, 2020 4PM EDT
    Play: 5% – Miami Dolphins +9.0 (-110)
    Play Rating: 5%
    Result: Win

     5% Big Ticket: Take the Miami Dolphins (#469)

    The 49ers have two wins this season – against the 0-4 Jets and the 0-4 Giants.  Their two losses came against teams that are a combined 1-5 SU in their other games.  No team in the league this side of Indy has played a weaker early season slate.  And San Fran hasn’t even been good enough to dominate that weak slate.

    Even with Jimmy Garoppolo expected back behind center this week, the 49ers remain an injury riddled mess.  San Fran has cluster injury problems at wide receiver, on the defensive line and in the secondary.  With Ahkello Witherspoon, Jimmie Ward, Emmanuel Mosely, Dontae Johnson and K’Waun Williams all questionable or doubtful, the 49ers secondary, in particular, looks like a disaster area on paper.  The Eagles – like the Jets and Giants -- were winless heading into last week’s game against San Fran, and they won it outright, by margin.  THAT is the 2020 49ers, a far cry from last year’s Super Bowl squad, even with Jimmy G back on the field.

    Kyle Shanahan has struggled ATS repeatedly in one role – as a home favorite.  The numbers do not lie.  The 49ers are just 3-11 ATS as home favorites since Shanahan arrived back in 2017, including an 0-2 mark in that role this year, losing both times in SU fashion.

    Miami spent a small fortune rebuilding their defense in the offseason.  Without a normal training camp/preseason, it took some gametime to work out the kinks.  After getting gashed in each of their first two games, that defense looked ‘night and day’ better against the Jaguars.  Their communication issues were solved.  The pass rush was effective; they forced turnovers and they stopped the run.  This defense made some key mistakes trying to stop Russell Wilson last week, but Garoppolo isn’t Wilson and last week’s issues are most assuredly correctable.

    Heading into the game against Seattle, Ryan Fitzpatrick had thrown four TD passes without an INT over the previous two weeks, 49-67 (73%) completions while averaging just shy of 7.5 yards per attempt.  TE Mike Gesicki, following the win vs Jacksonville: “Fitz is out of his mind.  He’s (37) playing like he’s 23.  You see the fun he has.  After I scored, we came off the field chest bumping and screaming.  It’s so much fun to play with him.”  Miami’s team chemistry is real.  They like head coach Brian Flores.  They like each other. 

    Fitzpatrick is playing for his job this week – it’ll be Tua time if Fitzy struggles again.  How’s this for a ‘leadership’ quote off the loss to Seattle: “The story of the day was being able to move the ball effectively and then not being able to do anything in the red zone, whether it was a penalty, poor execution or a bad read by me.  I felt like there were a lot of guys on our team that played well enough to win.  I, unfortunately, was not one of them.  Against this secondary, we can expect Fitzpatrick to bounce back strong.  I personally took a sprinkle on the moneyline at +320 to complement my ‘plus the points’ wager.  Big Ticket: Take the Dolphins.

    Line Parameter: 5% at +8 or higher, 4% at +7.5 or lower

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