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  • Event: (475) Minnesota Vikings at (476) Seattle Seahawks
    Sport/League: NFL
    Date/Time: October 11, 2020 8PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Minnesota Vikings +7.0 (-115)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    3%  Take Minnesota (#475)

    Seattle is tied for #31 in the NFL, allowing a whopping 6.5 yards per play through their first four games.  Their defense has caught a lot of breaks, allowing them to be 4-0 SU and ATS right now.  In Week 1, they held the Falcons 0-4 on fourth down tries.  In Week 2, they saved the game with a goal line stuff on the final play against New England.  In Week 3 against Dallas, they blew another double digit lead; saved ATS only by a made two point conversion and saved SU only thanks to an end zone interception at the end of the game.   Last week, the D allowed more than 400 yards to the Dolphins, although they did stiffen in the red zone.  Once again this week, the Seahawks are likely to be without key defensive pieces; particularly in their secondary.  They’ve notched a grand total of six sacks in four games.  This is NOT a good defense, not even close.

    Seattle ranks #2 in the NFL in turnover margin, they’re averaging more than 400 yards per game on offense despite the lack of a running game and they’re converting 67% of their fourth down chances YTD.  All of those numbers are primed for regression.  One of the stronger NFL homefields isn’t quite as strong without crowd support.  And Pete Carroll’s track record as a home favorite is his biggest ATS weakness: 7-12-2 ATS since the start of 2017 as home favorites.  I’m not looking to ask a team with a weak defense that has been riddled with injuries to win this game by more than a TD.

    After a very sluggish start to the season, the Vikings offense has come to life, notching back-2-back 30+ point outings.  Dalvin Cook is an explosive as any RB in the league these days, while the Adam Thielen/Justin Jefferson WR duo have shown ample big play ability in recent weeks.  And Kirk Cousins gave us a nice ‘bet-on’ quote after Minnesota got off the schnied with a win at Houston last Sunday: “You have to string wins together. One game isn't going to do anything for us. Certainly nice to get a win and get headed in the right direction. But each week is its own entity and we've got to be able to string some together for it to mean something and that's what's up ahead for us."  Live dog here!  Take the Vikings.

    Line Parameter: 3% at +7 or higher, 2% at +6.5 or lower.

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