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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (335) Kansas State at (336) TCU
    Sport/League: CFB
    Date/Time: October 10, 2020 4PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Kansas State +9.0 (-110)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

     3% Take Kansas State (#335)

    Kansas State beat TCU 24-17 last year; competitive from start to finish.  In 2018, TCU won 14-13, another tight battle.  In fact, in the eight meetings since TCU joined the Big 12, the Horned Frogs have won by more than a TD only twice; a hotly contested series.  There’s no class difference between these two teams.

    Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman has coached his team in seven non-home games during his two years on the job.  The Wildcats have lost a grand total of ONE of those games by more than a field goal, and they’ve pulled off outright upsets at Oklahoma, Mississippi State and Texas Tech, while hanging tough against Texas and last year’s talented Navy squad.  We want this coach in the ‘road underdog’ role

    While Klieman is a ‘bet-on’ coach in this role, TCU’s Gary Patterson has been a consistent ‘bet-against’ as home chalk in recent years.  Since the start of the 2016 season, my numbers show Patterson with a truly dismal 4-15-1 ATS mark as a home favorite.  They lost their only previous home game this season to Iowa State.  The two point win that TCU notched against Texas – an impressive upset, true – wouldn’t do Horned Frogs backers a lick of good here, with TCU laying more than a touchdown.

    There have been questions surrounding the health of K-State QB Skylar Thompson all week – that’s why this line is as high as it is in what should be a hotly contested game.  First and foremost, I expect Thompson to play, as does Klieman (“We think he can (play)”.  But if Thompson can’t go or doesn’t last, I’m more than willing to take a shot with talented frosh Bart Harris, who led the team to a win over Texas Tech last time out; throwing for 173 yards on his dozen pass attempts.  Put it all together and the case for the road underdog is perfectly clear.  Take K-State.

    Line Parameter: This line is likely to go down if Thompson starts and to go up if he doesn’t.  I personally locked in on Friday at +9.5; a line I’m not convinced will be there on Saturday morning….