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  • Event: (477) Los Angeles Chargers at (478) New Orleans Saints
    Sport/League: NFL
    Date/Time: October 12, 2020 8PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Los Angeles Chargers +7.0 (-110)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

     3% Take the LA Chargers (#477)

    The Saints snapped their two game losing streak last week thanks to a Lions team that was locked into a zone defense that Drew Brees was able to pick apart with relative ease.  Brees had time to throw in the pocket, because New Orleans was able to control the game on the ground, with Alvin Kamara and Latavious Murray combining for 147 yards on 33 carries.  But make no mistake about it – if the Saints can’t run, they can’t win.  And with the injury report for New Orleans looking uglier by the day, the price is right to get on the Chargers right now.

    The Saints played last week without star WR Michael Thomas, their top two CB’s in Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins, tight end Jared Cook, DE Marcus Davenport and offensive guard Andrus Peat.  Offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk left the game with a concussion and WR Deonte Harris got hurt as well.  It’s quite possible that none of those eight key contributors will suit up this week; with WR’s Thomas and Harris already ruled out. 

    Meanwhile, the Saints defense has been gashed for 34, 37 and 29 points over the last three weeks.  They’ve got a bye on deck.  This is NOT a team to lay more than a TD with right now, especially with a team at least somewhat distracted by Hurricane Delta, a hurricane that has given Saints players something else to worry about besides the Chargers.

    LA was the better team for much of the game at Tampa Bay last week, but an ill-advised fumble right before halftime turned the momentum, and a small handful of key second half mistakes sealed their fate in a seven point loss.  But make no mistake about it—right now, the Chargers have the better of these two defenses, despite their injury concerns; a stop unit that has shown great athleticism, with both pass rushing and run stuffing ability.  Right now, I’d trust Justin Herbert’s arm strength more than that of Drew Brees, and the Keenan Allen/Hunter Henry duo is the most dangerous receiving duo on the field here.  Expect a battle, not a blowout.  Take the Chargers.

    Line Parameter: 3% at +7 or higher, 2% at +6.5 or lower

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