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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (109) BYU at (110) Houston
    Sport/League: CFB
    Date/Time: October 16, 2020 9PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Houston +5.0 (-110)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

     3%  Take Houston (#110)

    Dana Holgorsen went 4-8 in his first season as the Houston head coach last year.  He knew that he needed a major talent infusion, and in the offseason, Holgorsen went out and got it, bringing in a whopping 33 transfers from junior colleges or other D-1 schools.  The Cougs then proceeded to have each of their first five scheduled games cancelled or postponed.  They finally got on the field last week against a solid Tulane team, but it took a while for them to get the rust off – Houston trailed 24-7 after committing three turnovers with a three-and-out on their first five drives.

    But once Houston got the rust off, the offseason talent infusion was on full display, on both sides of the ball.  Tulane’s offense got completely shut down, dominated at the line of scrimmage.  The offense put together six touchdowns in a seven drive span to take control of the game, led by junior signal caller Clayton Tune.  The Cougs finished -5 in turnovers and still won the game by three scores.  It’s surely worth noting that teams who were -5 in turnovers had been 1-90 SU prior to Houston’s win AND cover.  Right now, this Houston team is an undervalued commodity – a team loaded with talent who dominated in their opener far more than the final score would indicate.

    BYU is most assuredly NOT an undervalued commodity right now.  They enjoyed three blowout wins against lesser competition to open the season and statistically dominated them all, to the tune of more than an 1100 total yardage edge to go along with their 148-24 edge on the scoreboard.  But the Kalani Sitake era has not been one where BYU has brought their ‘A’ game on a weekly basis – not even close; extremely inconsistent from week to week.  BYU was a road favorite four times last year.  They lost SU in three of those games and failed to cover the fourth – this isn’t their role.  And, after beating up on weaklings, this is a legit step up in class for a BYU team that has piled up huge stats early – stats that are relevant here only because they serve the purpose of inflating this pointspread.  Live dog here!  Take Houston.

    Line Parameter: 3% at +4 or higher, 2% at +3.5 or lower