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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (143) Texas A&M at (144) Mississippi State
    Sport/League: CFB
    Date/Time: October 17, 2020 4PM EDT
    Play: 4% – Texas A&M -4.5 (-105)
    Play Rating: 4%
    Result: Win

    4%  Take Texas A&M (#143)

    Mike Leach’s squad shocked everybody on opening day, going into Baton Rouge and hanging 44 on the defending national champs in an impressive, outright upset victory.  Since that time, however, Mississippi State has been as ‘bet-against’ as it gets, losing SU to Arkansas as 17 point favorites, then losing 24-2 at previously winless Kentucky last Saturday.  Both times, they lost ATS by three scores, a ‘no-sweat’ pointspread decision.

    The Bulldogs struggles are no surprise to anyone who has followed Mike Leach’s career.  Leach has often had locker room issues and this year is no exception, with his harsh comments about ‘finding new players’ after last week’s loss.  Leach has a roster filled with players recruited for a different system than the one he is running; a major issue on the offensive line in particular.  Opponents have plenty of film on what he’s running now – which was NOT the case in Week 1.  And it’s not like this defense is good enough to keep this team hanging around in games where the offense doesn’t move the football.  Lacking confidence and chemistry, the Bulldogs are an easy team for this bettor to fade!

    The betting markets seem very worried about a Texas A&M letdown after their impressive upset win over Florida last Saturday – hence the short, ‘under a TD’ pointspread.  I’m not as worried, especially given the talent gap between these two squads.  A&M is loaded on both sides of the ball – not ‘Alabama’ loaded as we saw three weeks ago, but they’ve got as much talent/experience as any other team in the SEC West.

    Starkville can be a very tough place to play when the Cowbells are ringing and the stadium is packed.  Not this year!  We saw the Bulldogs look as flat as a pancake for their home opener, and I’m not expecting this homefield to be a difference maker here.  Road chalk worth laying!  Take Texas A&M.

    Line Parameter: 4% at -6.5 or lower, 3% at -7 or higher

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