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  • Event: (589) Golden State Warriors at (590) Houston Rockets
    Sport/League: NBA
    Date/Time: May 4, 2019 8PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Houston Rockets -3.0 (-108)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    3%  Take Houston (#590)

    I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet.  I don’t believe the Rockets are going to go down without a fight.  I do believe in Houston’s defense, a vastly underrated segment of their game: #2 in the NBA in defensive efficiency from the final 15 games of the regular season through today.  The Warriors aren’t unbeatable, and they’ve shown legitimate vulnerability already in this postseason.   Each of the first two games of the series were tight, intense contests – it’s not like the Warriors enjoy a massive matchup edge that Houston can’t overcome. 

    So far, this series has been about shot making and rebounding.  Houston hit fewer than 30% from three point range in Game 1, and struggled to control the defensive glass in Game 2.  These are not season long issues or matchup problems – it’s just a matter of execution.  With three full days off between Game 2 and Game 3, I’m expecting Houston’s execution to be at it’s peak in their ‘must win’ game tonight.  Chalk worth laying! Take the Rockets.

    Line Parameter: 3% at -3.5 or lower, 2% at -4 or higher

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