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  • Event: (503) Golden State Warriors at (504) Houston Rockets
    Sport/League: NBA
    Date/Time: May 6, 2019 9PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Houston Rockets -1.5 (-106)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    3%  Take Houston (#504)

    I’ve backed the Rockets in each of the first three games of this series; cashing a pair of winning bets in the process.  And I have no hesitation getting right back to the betting window with Houston again tonight as they look to tie the series up at two games apiece.

    Houston just survived a ‘Kevin Durant is refusing to lose’ game in OT on Saturday.  After the win, the locker room was all business; no celebration.  Game 4 is Houston’s season and they know it.  After three straight ‘down to the wire’ games, the Rockets confidence level is high – there’s zero separation between these two teams.

    I believe in Houston’s defense, a vastly underrated segment of their game: #2 in the NBA in defensive efficiency from the final 15 games of the regular season through today.    The mainstream media is going on and on about Steph Curry’s shooting slump – Houston has a lot to do with that.  So do the massive minutes that Steve Kerr has used his starters here in the postseason – Golden State is anything BUT fresh as they head into Game 4.

    Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson  have all averaged more than 40 minutes per game here in the playoffs.  Andre Igoudala reached 30 minutes of playing time only three times during the regular season.  He’s played at least 35 minutes in each of their first three games of this series.   Steph Curry clearly isn’t 100% healthy, yet he, too, despite foul trouble in every game, is averaging more than 35 minutes per game.

    The Warriors bench production is nil right now, producing a grand total of seven points in Game 3.  There’s no extra rest between games this time, like they had following Game 2.  Steve Kerr’s quotes stand out: "[Fatigue] doesn't matter, you have to play…. We're not going to be playing a lot of guys. This is a tough series to go deep into your bench because they've got three guards that can get to the rim and they put a lot of pressure on you."  Expect this series to head back to Golden State tied at 2 games apiece!  Take the Rockets

    Line Parameter: 3% at -2 or lower, 2% at -2.5 or higher

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