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  • Event: (511) Houston Rockets at (512) Golden State Warriors
    Sport/League: NBA
    Date/Time: May 8, 2019 10PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Houston Rockets 6.0 (-110)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    3%  Take Houston (#511)

    My clients and I have been on the Rockets in each of the first four games of this series, cashing three winning bets in the process.   Let me start with an extended excerpt from my last write-up supporting Houston:

    “I believe in Houston’s defense, a vastly underrated segment of their game: #2 in the NBA in defensive efficiency from the final 15 games of the regular season through today.    The mainstream media is going on and on about Steph Curry’s shooting slump – Houston has a lot to do with that.  So do the massive minutes that Steve Kerr has used his starters here in the postseason – Golden State is anything BUT fresh as they head into Game 4.

    “Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson  have all averaged more than 40 minutes per game here in the playoffs.  Andre Igoudala reached 30 minutes of playing time only three times during the regular season.  He’s played at least 35 minutes in each of their first three games of this series.   Steph Curry clearly isn’t 100% healthy, yet he, too, despite foul trouble in every game, is averaging more than 35 minutes per game.

    “The Warriors bench production is nil right now, producing a grand total of seven points in Game 3.  There’s no extra rest between games this time, like they had following Game 2.  Steve Kerr’s quotes stand out: "[Fatigue] doesn't matter, you have to play…. We're not going to be playing a lot of guys. This is a tough series to go deep into your bench because they've got three guards that can get to the rim and they put a lot of pressure on you." 

    Durant and Curry both had HUGE games in Game 4 and it still wasn’t enough for Golden State to steal the win.  Green, Durant and Curry all played 40+ minutes, the bench was a non-factor and Houston continued to get good looks from three point range throughout.

    So now we’re talking about a series where neither team has won a game by more than six points – each and every game a tight, down to the wire affair.  I’m not looking to lay points in this spot, especially against a veteran, playoff tested team like Houston – they’re not ‘fat and happy’ off back-2-back home wins.  I love this quote from veteran role player PJ Tucker:

    "We got to be better on the road. We have to be more physical. We have to impose our will more. Those first two games wasn't us. We had chances to win those games, but we didn't play our brand of basketball for the whole game. We stepped it up at home. We played OK, and we got some wins. But we have to be better."  Throw in the Warriors truly dismal ATS stats at home – less than 40% ATS since the beginning of February – and it’s not hard to make a strong case for another Houston pointspread cover this evening.  Take the Rockets.

    Line Parameter: 3% at +6 or higher, 2% at +5.5 or lower