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  • Event: (917) Texas Rangers at (918) Houston Astros
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: May 9, 2019 8PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Houston Astros -1.5 (+125)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    3%  Take Houston (#918) on the Run Line

    My clients and I cashed with Astros on the Run Line in their 9-0 blowout over the Royals last night, and I have ZERO hesitation backing Houston on the Run Line again tonight as they face the Rangers.

    Make no mistake about it – this Astros lineup is RED HOT right now.  They’re ranked #1 in MLB (by a fairly wide margin) with an .841 team OPS, #1 in batting average, #2 in on base percentage, slugging percentage and home runs.  They’ve pounded out 41 runs over their last five games, winning four of them by multi-run margins. 

    Mike Minor shut down the Astros when he faced them in April.  A second look against him for a team that mashes lefties is not a good thing for Minor, who’s advanced metric stats show a flyballer who’s strand rate is past due for a correction and who’s xFIP is more than a run and a half higher than his ERA. Wade Miley doesn’t have great advanced metric stats either, but his track record is too good to ignore: 23 consecutive starts allowing three earned runs or less.  The Astros have won five of his last six starts by multi-run margins.

    If it comes down to a battle of the bullpens, the Astros rank #1 in MLB in bullpen ERA, while Texas ranks #23.  In addition, the Rangers played a tight, extra inning game yesterday while the Astros were cruising to victory – only one of these two bullpens is fresh today, leaving the door open for some late inning shenanigans, should we need them.   Expect a blowout.  Take the Astros on the Run Line.

    Line Parameter: 3% at -1.5 (+100) or better, 2% if you have to lay any juice w’ Houston on the Run Line