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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (521) Philadelphia 76ers at (522) Toronto Raptors
    Sport/League: NBA
    Date/Time: May 12, 2019 7PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Philadelphia 76ers 6.0 (-110)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    3%  Take Philadelphia (#521)

    Let me start with an excerpt from my Game 6 write-up supporting the Sixers.

    “It’s not like this series has been a mismatch when Joel Embiid has been healthy, but Embiid dealt with a nasty flu bug – diarrhea; the works – in each of the last two games.  He’s expected to be healthy tonight…. A healthy, contributing Embiid is a difference maker for the Sixers.   Jimmy Butler gave us a nice ‘bet-on’ quote following the ugly Game 5 loss:  "Like I said before, we're going to ride or die with big fella. Everybody around this locker room knows that, everybody in the world should know it, the fans should know it. We'll be just fine, we're going to keep doing what we're doing, encouraging him to keep battling through all injury, through all sickness and we're here with him….. Keep competing, play hard, stick together. We win together, lose together, and we're going to play together.”

    And that’s the crux of my rationale supporting the 76ers plus the points in Game 7.  Embiid has only been a factor in two games: Game 3 and Game 6.  The Sixers won both of those games by double digit margins.  With an extra day’s rest between Game 6 and Game 7 – three days instead of two – I’m expecting Joel Embiid to once again be a difference maker for Philly.

    But let’s not forget the Ben Simmons – Kyle Lowry matchup at the point guard position.  Simmons finally figured out Lowry in Game 6, taking more free throws than he’d taken in the first five games combined while producing his series high in points.  Kyle Lowry hasn’t exactly stepped up with brilliant games when the season was on the line in previous Raptors playoff runs.  I don’t trust him here, one iota.

    Last, but not least, let’s remember that short chalk is not Toronto’s preferred ATS role.  As favorites of --6 or less, the Raptors are just 9-18 ATS this season, consistent money losers.  In a series that has produced more than it’s fair share of intrigue and momentum changes, bettors should expect a Game 7 battle, not a blowout.  Take the 76ers.

    Line Parameter: 3% at +6 or higher, 2% at +5.5 or lower