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  • Event: (533) Portland Trail Blazers at (534) Golden State Warriors
    Sport/League: NBA
    Date/Time: May 14, 2019 9PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Portland Trail Blazers 8.0 (-110)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%  Take Portland (#533)

    The Warriors showed their vulnerabilities in their ‘tougher than expected’ series against the Clippers.   Those vulnerabilities were on full display once again versus their just concluded series against the Rockets.  And it all starts with winning at home, by margin, something the Warriors have struggled with all season.

    The results do not lie.  The Warriors are burning money for their backers as home favorites.  Golden State is just  2-4 ATS at home in the playoffs, with one of the two wins coming by a half point ATS.  In fact, the Warriors have been losing money at home all year: 18-29 ATS at Oracle Arena including a 7-13 ATS mark in their last 20 tries on this floor.  It’s surely worth noting that the Warriors haven’t won a game by MORE than six points since the first round

    The Warriors are anything BUT fresh as they head into the Conference Finals.   Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson have all averaged more than 36 minutes per game here in the playoffs.  Andre Igoudala reached 30 minutes of playing time only three times during the regular season.  He’s averaged 30 minutes in the playoffs.   The accumulation of four previous consecutive trips to the Finals and a tough first two rounds has this team legitimately fatigued, bad news in this pointspread range.  And the Warriors bench production is nil right now.  Steve Kerr’s quotes stand out: "[Fatigue] doesn't matter, you have to play…. We're not going to be playing a lot of guys. " 

    The Blazers split their regular season meetings with the Rockets this year, including an OT win right here at Oracle.  They beat the Warriors twice last year as well, not a team that has no history of success vs. this foe and no confidence in this building.  They’ve won road games in SU fashion in both previous series, and their confidence inducing Game 7 win at Denver has legitimate potential to carry forward into Game 1.  Expect a battle, not a blowout. Take the Blazers.

    Line Parameter: 3% at +7.5 or higher, 2% at +7 or lower