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  • Event: (531) Toronto Raptors at (532) Milwaukee Bucks
    Sport/League: NBA
    Date/Time: May 15, 2019 8PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 (-110)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    3%  Take Milwaukee (#532)

    The Milwaukee Bucks were the single best pointspread team in the NBA in the regular season.   They’ve been the single best pointspread team in the NBA here in the playoffs as well; a consistently undervalued commodity in the betting marketplace from Day 1 this season.  The Raptors, on the other hand, were a sub .500 team ATS during the regular season and they’re just a .500 team ATS in the postseason, including a pair of double digit losses at Philly in their last series.

    The quotes coming out of Milwaukee are clear, bet-on’ quotes for Game 1 after their Game 1 no-show against the Celtics.  Giannis: “Against Boston, you can go down 1-0 and still be fine. But against Toronto it's hard to be in that spot when you lose the first game at your home."   Veteran point guard George Hill, a difference maker in each of the first two series: “The first game against Boston woke us up. We are staying active. We aren't just sitting here waiting. Last time, we took advantage of the rest, but this time we're being smart to not overrest."

    The Raptors, on the other hand, are coming off arguably the single biggest win in franchise history; a true Game 7 buzzer beater.  The quick turnaround for this series won’t be easy and Head Coach Nick Nurse knows it:  "It's a totally different style than we've just been through in our last two series.  These were set-play teams, pretty methodical on offense. They'd come down and run things, and run some post-ups and run stuff for certain guys. Not to say Milwaukee doesn't do some of that, too, but they would much rather spread the floor, give it to a guy, put their head down and take it to the rim, put it in the rim. If you send help, they'll fire it out and they're going to shoot a ton of 3s."

    The Raptors role players didn’t step up at all in the series against the 76ers, and by Game 7, they were passing up open looks from the perimeter again and again.  The Bucks, on the other hand, just got defensive stopper Malcolm Brogden back in the lineup, and their bench has been dynamite from Day 1 of the playoffs.  Lay the points and expect a comfortable Game 1 win from the home favorite.  Take the Bucks.

    Line Parameter: 3% at -6.5 or lower, 2% at -7 or higher