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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (957) Washington Nationals at (958) Atlanta Braves
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: May 28, 2019 7PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Atlanta Braves -111
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%  Take Atlanta (#958)

    For every step forward the Nationals have made over the past ten days, they’ve taken just as many steps back.  Yes, Washington’s lineup is healthier now that several of their injured starters are back on the field.  Yes, Stephen Strasburg is capable of throwing gems anytime he takes the field.   But Washington’s bullpen failures make everything on the team completely irrelevant right now.  When you can’t get the 27 outs you need to win a ballgame, you’re a relatively easy team to fade.

    Washington’s bullpen just blew their fourth game in the last week, spoiling a true gem from Max Scherzer.  As a team, the Nats pen has a 7.12 ERA, far worse than #29 ranked Baltimore 95.99) or #28 ranked Detroit (5.46).  Opponents are hitting .287 against Nats relievers; again, by far, the worst in the majors.  That’s why Washington is just 3-5 in Strasburg’s last eight starts.  And it’s surely worth noting that the Braves have hit him hard, to the tune of a .281 batting average and an .841 OPS against him in their respective careers.  Strasburg’s last outing against the Braves wasn’t pretty, allowing six earned runs in 4.2 innings of work.

    Max Fried has been pitching like an ace for the Braves since Day 1 this season, and he’s been particularly strong at home: four dominant starts and one solid one in five tries.  The Braves are playing good baseball right now: 12-4 in their last 16 games, including a momentum building come-from-behind win against the Cardinals on Sunday.   And this lineup continues to produce, pounding out 35 runs in six games on their last homestand.  Take the Braves.

    Line Parameter: 3% at -119 or lower, 2% at -120 or higher