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  • Event: (521) Golden State Warriors at (522) Toronto Raptors
    Sport/League: NBA
    Date/Time: May 30, 2019 9PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Toronto Raptors -117
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    3%  Take the Toronto Raptors (#522) on the Moneyline

    Let me start with the key angle in play tonight.  Home teams win Game 1of the NBA Finals – hence the ‘moneyline’ recommendation for tonight, instead of laying -1 or -1.5.  Since the Bulls beat the Sonics to win Michael Jordan’s fourth title back in 1996, the home teams in Game 1 of the Finals have gone 20-3 SU.  It’s a significant enough sample size to consider meaningful.

    Golden State has been to four straight finals, winning three of them.  Their opponent in all four Finals was the same team – Cleveland.  And frankly, each and every one of those Cavs teams was somewhat flawed – limited talent surrounding LeBron, with injuries a problem every season -- and not particularly well coached.  In my opinion, that leaves the Warriors – as a team – somewhat overvalued as they head into the Finals this year.  Toronto is as good or better than any of the past four editions of the Cavs.

    Don’t underestimate the energy level  in Toronto this evening – this is the biggest game in Canada so far this CENTURY.  The Raptors aren’t outclassed here – they won both regular season meetings and went 2-0 ATS against the Warriors last year as well.  Toronto’s home court has been worth something here in the playoffs: 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS since their Game 1 loss to Orlando in the first round.  And Toronto’s supporting cast around Kawhi has proven their mettle – the Raptors have the depth to hang around with Golden State.

    The Warriors haven’t exactly been shutting down teams defensively here in the postseason, or in the regular season for that matter.  Toronto had the better defensive efficiency numbers for the 82 game campaign, and they’ve had significantly better defensive numbers here in the playoffs.  With the game on the line in the fourth quarter, I trust Toronto to get that key stop more than I trust the Warriors to do it after their extended layoff.  Take the Raptors on the Moneyline.

    Line Parameter: 3% at -124 or lower, 2% at -125 or higher

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