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  • Event: (909) Philadelphia Phillies at (910) Los Angeles Dodgers
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: June 2, 2019 4PM EDT
    Play: 3% – (909) Philadelphia Phillies at (910) Los Angeles Dodgers Total Over 9.0 (-108)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%  Take Philadelphia – LA Dodgers OVER (#909-910)

    Nick Pivetta is now in his third season as a big league starting pitcher.  His career ERA is 5.51, yet his career xFIP is 3.88, more than a run and a half lower; attracting wiseguy betting attention as a result.  What gives? 

    Simple – Pivetta can’t keep the ball in the park; a hurler with extreme vulnerability to home runs.  Pivetta has allowed seven dingers in just 23 innings of work this season after allowing 49 dingers in his first 58 career starts.  The markets keep expecting a correction that hasn’t come!

    That’s bad news against this hot hitting Dodgers lineup that leads the NL in runs, OBP, slugging percentage and OPS.  Pivetta also hasn’t recorded a single out past the fifth inning this season; bad news on a day where the Phillies bullpen is anything BUT fresh.

    The Phillies bats are in solid current form, averaging more than five runs per game over their last nine ballgames.  The Dodgers bullpen has shown plenty of cracks in recent games, and starter Rich Hill is coming off his season high pitch count with a long term track record of weaker results in daytime starts.  Put it all together and we can expect runs in bunches at Dodgers Stadium on Sunday!  Take the OVER.

    Line Parameter: 3% at 9 or lower, 2% at 9.5 or higher