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  • Event: (525) Toronto Raptors at (526) Golden State Warriors
    Sport/League: NBA
    Date/Time: June 5, 2019 9PM EDT
    Play: 5% – Golden State Warriors -5.5 (-110)
    Play Rating: 5%
    Result: Loss

    5%  Big Ticket: Take Golden State (#526)

    The Warriors have now trailed by double digits in each of their last five playoff games.  Those deficits haven’t mattered – the Warriors are 4-1 SU in those five contests, demonstrating all the ‘refuse to lose’ that you would expect from the three time champs.  And since losing two out of three in the opening round to the Clippers, the Warriors have been dominant on their home court, beating the Rockets three times and the Blazers twice, a perfect 5-0 SU in their last five tries.

    Toronto’s track record is rather different.  Since losing Game 1 in the first round to Orlando, the Raptors have lost five other times.   Twice they lost two straight, the third time following a defeat they beat Philly on Kawhi’s buzzer beater but failed to cover the spread.  More than most teams at this stage of the postseason, there has clearly been a ‘hangover’ effect from Toronto here in the postseason off a loss.

    Demarcus Cousins matters.  After missing extended time, Cousins was a non-factor in Game 1.  In Game 2, now acclimated, Cousins was a difference maker: 11 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, as well as a handful of key plays during crunch time.  Now Steve Kerr has the option to go large, playing Draymond Green at the #4 spot and Cousins at the #5.  That strategy worked pretty darn well in Game 2, and should work again in Game 3 unless Marc Gasol suddenly finds a way to get five years younger.

    The betting markets have given us a real bargain at the opener -- hence the early release for this Big Ticket sized wager.  Yes, Klay Thompson pulled his hamstring in Game 2 and was on the bench during crunch time.  But all early reports indicate that Thompson should be good to go on Wednesday Night and Kevin Durant could join him!

    I believe Klay Thompson’s “heart of a champion’ quote prior to Game 2.  I believe this post- Game 2 quote from Steph Curry too: “When you get to this stage, our DNA shows up.” I’m not getting that same sense from the Raptors…..Big Ticket: Take the Warriors.

    Line Parameter: 5% at -6 or lower, 4% at -6.5 or higher