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  • Event: (527) Toronto Raptors at (528) Golden State Warriors
    Sport/League: NBA
    Date/Time: June 7, 2019 9PM EDT
    Play: 3% – (527) Toronto Raptors at (528) Golden State Warriors Total Under 215.0 (-108)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    3%  Take Golden State – Toronto UNDER (#527-528)

    Let me start with an excerpt from my Game 2 write-up supporting the Under, a lucky cash.  Numbers have been slightly edited to reflect current realities:

    “Last year in the playoffs, Golden State lost five times.  They went 5-0 to the Under following each one of their losses; stellar defensively every time – they held the Spurs to 91, the Pelicans to 92 and the Rockets to 85, 86 and 98 points following those five defeats. 

    It’s was a similar story during the regular season this year.  After losing to the Lakers on Christmas Day, Golden State has cashed 11 Unders in 14 tries following a loss.  Two of their three Overs in this role came against the same ‘push the pace’ team (Sacramento). 

    That same trend has not been as profitable in the playoffs, but it was on full display following their last defeat; when the Rockets tied the series 2-2.  The Warriors defense in Game 5 was truly stellar – Houston’s worst offensive output of the series – and the game stayed Under by 18 points.”

    Game 3, like Game 1 cashed Over bets.  But like Game 1, it was not played at a torrid pace – the Raptors offensive efficiency was the difference maker.  Toronto became the third team in NBA Finals HISTORY to hit 50% from the floor, 40% from three point range and 90% from the free throw line.  Every Raptors player who attempted a shot hit at least 50% from the floor.  I’m not expecting a repeat offensive performance, to put it mildly.

    These quotes following Game 1 stand out again:  Steve Kerr’s quote from a fourth quarter timeout: "For the past five days, the one message we had was, 'Get back on defense ... This is the f---ing Finals. Get back on defense.'"  Draymond Green: "Our transition D was horrible. You give guys those type of shots, they get comfortable and it's a different beast."  Steph Curry: “You can't give [Siakam] any dare shots, and you can't give him any straight-line drives to the basket. That's just an effort thing we all can be more mindful of."

    The Raptors length and defensive versatility have clearly affected Golden State’s offensive gameplan.  With a mismashed roster forcing the likes of Jonas Jerebko, Alfonzo McKinnie, Jordan Bell and Andrew Bogut getting major minutes.  I’m not convinced in the slightest that Golden State has a ‘rain three’s all night’ game in them against the Raptors perimeter defense, setting the stage for what should be a relatively low scoring affair this evening.  Take the UNDER.

    Line Parameter: 3% at 213.5 or higher, 2% at 213 or lower