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  • Event: (529) Golden State Warriors at (530) Toronto Raptors
    Sport/League: NBA
    Date/Time: June 10, 2019 9PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Toronto Raptors -1.5 (-110)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%  Take Toronto (#530)

    The Raptors have clearly been the better of these two teams through the first four games of this series.  Even if Kevin Durant suits up tonight, I’m expecting Toronto to win their first ever title on Monday Night. 

    The Raptors won both regular season meetings in SU fashion and went 2-0 ATS against the Warriors last year as well.  Toronto’s home court has been worth something here in the playoffs: 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS since their Game 1 loss to Orlando in the first round.  And Toronto’s supporting cast around Kawhi has proven their mettle on both ends of the floor – Siakam, Gasol, Ibaka, Van Vleet, Lowry and company have been nothing short of outstanding.

    The key to the series has been Toronto’s defensive length.  Last year in the NBA Finals, the Warriors had an offensive rating of 122.1 points per 100 possessions – off the charts good.  The year before, they were at 120.4.  This year, against the Raptors, Golden State is at 107.2, below the NBA average for the full season.  Other than Thompson and Curry, the Warriors supporting cast has been very limited and playing in rotations they’re not used to.  In a truly frenzied environment in Toronto tonight, I don’t expect that to change.

    All the quotes coming out of Toronto scream ‘bet-on’ for Game 5.  Kyle Lowry: “We haven't done anything. We won three games. It's the first of four. We understand that. They're the defending champs, and they're not going to go out easy. They're going to come and fight and prepare to play the next game, and that's how we're preparing ourselves, that we have to -- we got to prepare ourselves to play the next game."

    Kawhi Leonard, as always calm and composed: "It doesn't matter until you get that fourth win. We just have to stay confident in ourselves, be patient, don't try to rush things, and see how it plays out."

    And this Klay Thompson quote from Sunday really stands out:“Everything that’s great always comes to an end — whether that’s tomorrow or 4 years from now, you never know.”   Durant or not, expect Golden State’s dynasty to end tonight.   Take the Raptors.

    No Line Parameter Here: This line can and will bounce around based on Durant’s availability.  I like Toronto whether Durant suits up or not, and I’ve personally locked in my wager at -1.5.