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  • Event: (957) San Diego Padres at (958) Pittsburgh Pirates
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: June 21, 2019 7PM EDT
    Play: 5% – (957) San Diego Padres at (958) Pittsburgh Pirates Total Over 9.0 (-115)
    Play Rating: 5%
    Result: Loss

    5%  Big Ticket: Take Pittsburgh – San Diego OVER (#957-958)

    When I bet Overs, I’m basically looking for three things – hot lineups, suspect starting pitching and struggling, worn down bullpens.  We’ve got all three pointing towards an Over tonight in Pittsburgh, a play worthy of Big Ticket status!

    Let’s start with the lineups.  San Diego’s big bats are crushing the ball right now, pounding out 58 runs over their last seven ballgames.  Manager Andy Green: “It's fun to watch these guys play baseball……We have a lot of firepower. We have a number of guys going good right now."  First baseball Eric Hosmer: “Guys are clicking at the right time right now.”

    Meanwhile, the Pirates just rallied back from a 7-1 deficit to beat the Tigers in their last game.  Starting pitcher Trevor Williams: “Top to bottom in our lineup, it's just been really impressive over this tough stretch for us."  The Pirates have scored five runs or more seven times while going 7-1-1 to the Over in their last nine ballgames.

    Neither starter is reliable.  Eric Lauer couldn’t make it out of the third inning in his last outing, and his 2.70 ERA at home in pitcher friendly Petco Field stands in sharp contrast to his 7.81 ERA on the highway.  Current Pirates have hit .320 against him in their careers.  Joe Musgrove has allowed five earned runs or more in five of his last nine starts.  It’s surely worth noting that Musgrove’s home ERA is sitting at 5.71, more than a run and a half higher than his road ERA.

    Even if the starters pitch well, neither bullpen is trustworthy, ranking #23 and #24 in MLB in bullpen ERA so far this season.  San Diego’s bullpen has been bombed repeatedly over the last week – that’s why they’ve allowed seven runs or more five times in their last seven ballgames.  The Pirates pen, too, is worn down – only twice in their last nine games has a starter recorded an out past the fifth inning.  Put it all together and it’s pretty darn clear --this game has true ‘fireworks’ potential from start to finish.  Big Ticket: Take the OVER.

    Line Parameter: 5% at Over 9 (-130) or lower, 4% at Over 9 (-131) or higher or at 9.5