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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (969) Houston Astros at (970) New York Yankees
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: June 23, 2019 2PM EDT
    Play: 3% – (969) Houston Astros at (970) New York Yankees Total Over 9.5 (-115)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    3%  Take New York – Houston OVER (#969-970)

    With two hot hitting lineups of this caliber, we can expect runs in bunches in the Bronx this afternoon.   Both the Yankees and Astros rank in the top quartile in MLB in runs scored, OPS and slugging percentage despite both squads dealing with key injuries.  Many of those key players (Jose Altuve, Aaron Judge, etc)  have returned to the lineup of late -- not to mention the addition of Edwin Encarnacion for the Yanks.   New York has scored 60 runs in their last eight games, bad news for Justin Verlander.

    Verlander was brilliant earlier in the season, but he’s allowed three runs or more four times in his last five trips to the hill.  Verlander’s advanced metrics show an xFIP a full run higher than his ERA.  Houston’s bullpen behind him is not fresh – their pitching has been hit hard throughout this series.

    Houston has spent the season mashing lefties like JA Happ, averaging nearly six runs per nine innings against opposing southpaws.  Happ isn’t eating up innings, failing to reach the sixth in three of his last four starts, and the Yankees bullpen behind him, too, has been used extensively in this series.  Houston finally got a couple of clutch hits yesterday but they’ve left 32 runners on base in this series.  Expect a few more clutch hits today in a game that has true ‘fireworks’ potential.  Take the OVER.

    Line Parameter: 3% at 9.5 (-120) or lower, 2% at 9.5 (-121 or higher) or 10