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  • Event: (903) Atlanta Braves at (904) Chicago Cubs
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: June 24, 2019 8PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Atlanta Braves +120
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%  Take Atlanta (#903)

    The Braves are 3.5 games ahead of the Cubs in the NL standings here in late June and there’s nothing fraudulent about Atlanta’s winning ways.  And from a ‘where are these two teams being priced’ standpoint, there’s no comparison.  Atlanta ranks #4 in MLB in profitability this season, while Cubs backers have lost money this year.

    The betting markets have been fading Julio Teheran just about every time he’s taken the mound – his xFIP is more than a run and a half higher than his ERA.  If this was new or different, it might be a concern.  But the fact is that Teheran’s xFIP has been higher than his ERA in every season since 2013 – a low strikeout rate and a low ground ball rate don’t grade out well, even from a veteran hurler who’s been effective for years!  And when we factor in an outstanding track record against current Cubs --  a .175 batting average against and a .587 OPS in more than a 100 at bat sample size – Teheran certainly has ‘bet-on’ potential tonight!  Atlanta isn’t 7-2 in his last nine starts by accident!

    The Braves bats continue to sizzle – that’s how they’ve won each of their last five series while going 13-3 in their last 16 ballgames.  Freddie Freeman, following yesterday’s late inning rally against the Nationals:"I think the more you do it, that's when you start saying, 'Wow, we can keep doing this over and over again.’  As much as I'd like to win without heart-racing moments like this, it's pretty spectacular what this team is doing.”

    The Cubs, on the other hand, are just 5-8 in their last 13 overall; held to three runs or less six times in their last ten ballgames.  Jon Lester is coming off a grueling 116 pitch effort in just 5.2 innings against the White Sox – the fifth time in his last seven starts that has hasn’t made it through the sixth inning, with the Cubs going just 3-4 in those seven ballgames.  Live dog here!  Take the Braves.

    Line Parameter: 3% at +111 or higher, 2% at +110 or lower.