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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (955) Chicago Cubs at (956) Cincinnati Reds
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: June 29, 2019 4PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Cincinnati Reds -122
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%  Take Cincinnati (#956)

    Before the Reds won the first game of this series last night, there were multiple quotes from the Cincinnati locker room talking about how this homestand before the All Star Break was their most important stretch of games of the season.  Scooter Gennett, fresh off the DL:  "We're in it. It's pretty close, pretty tight. And we're still a couple weeks away from the All-Star break, so there's plenty of time to make a run."  Last night’s resounding win was certainly a positive sign; and a real potential harbinger of things to come.

    Luis Castillo has pitched at an ace level for Cinci from Day 1 this season.  He’s had two bad starts against the Brewers.  In Castillo’s other 14 starts, he’s allowed a grand total of 18 earned runs, including a strong showing against these same Cubs last month.  For his career, Castillo has enjoyed success against Joe Maddon’s lineup – current Cubs are hitting just .212 against him with a .686 OPS in a solid 118 at bats sample size.  Behind Castillo, the Reds bullpen ranks #2 in the majors in ERA.

    The Reds have hit lefties better than righties all year.  Cubs southpaw Jose Quintana has been struggling for weeks, with only one quality start in his last six trips to the hill.  He’s lost twice to Cinci since the beginning of May (18 hits and nine runs allowed in 10.1 innings of work), and the Cubs bullpen behind him is spent after Cole Hamels left the game early yesterday; their fourth straight ‘short start’.  And it’s surely worth noting the Cubs continue to scuffle on the highway, just 15-22 outside the friendly confines of Wrigley Field so far this season. Take the Reds.

    Line Parameter: 3% at -129 or lower, 2% at 130 or higher