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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (901) Milwaukee Brewers at (902) Pittsburgh Pirates
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: July 6, 2019 4PM EDT
    Play: 3% – (901) Milwaukee Brewers at (902) Pittsburgh Pirates Total Over 10.0 (-115)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    3%  Take Milwaukee – Pittsburgh OVER (#901-902)

    Both teams are likely to use their bullpens extensively on Sunday.  Brewers starter  Adrian Houser is a ‘twice through the batting order at the most’ type of hurler; yet to reach 80 pitches in a game this season.  Houser has a 1.05 ERA as a reliever, in sharp contrast to his 7.62 ERA as a starter.  Pirates starter Dario Agrazal has some very dicey advanced metrics in his first two big league starts thanks to walks and fly balls, with an XFip of 5.17 in sharp contrast to his 2.70 ERA,

    Neither starter is primed to last long in this game, and neither guy is likely to throw a true gem; two bottom of the rotation’ type hurlers.  Just as importantly, neither team has anything resembling a ‘fresh’ bullpen after these two teams combined to score ten runs after the seventh inning last night, forcing both managers to use every key arm in high leverage situations. 

    And both of these lineups are quite capable of approaching or exceeding this total all by themselves.  The Brewers snapped out of a little offensive funk last night with 13 hits including three dingers; scoring seven runs despite only hitting 3-17 with runners in scoring position.  The Pirates have scored six or more in eight of their last twelve at PNC Park, and the Over is a truly Under-the-Radar 21-5-2 in their last 28 home games.  Expect runs in bunches!  Take the OVER.

    Line Parameter: 3% at 10, 2% at 10.5