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Dr. Chuck
  • Event: (965) Boston Red Sox at (966) Detroit Tigers
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: July 7, 2019 1PM EDT
    Play: 5% – (965) Boston Red Sox at (966) Detroit Tigers Total Over 10.0 (-115)
    Play Rating: 5%
    Result: Loss

     Price v. Soto

    Why stop now?  We had this total on Friday and it came in with 15 runs even with a delay, then yesterday they upped the ante for 16 total runs.  We thought we were riding with Soto on Friday but got Carpenter instead, and sadly for Tigers fans it is basically negligible.  Soto does go today, for however long, but it should be enough to get us going strongly in the right direction.  His FIP/xFIP split is awful in the mid-6s and were he to "qualify" he would be league bottom in the MLB.  Boston has been absolutely raking against lefties recently as well racking up 

    .241 ISO

    22 wRC

    5.7 wRAA

    .371 wOBA

    130 wRC+

    metrics just the past couple weeks in almost 130 PAs

    On top of all this, we have Detroit's fine bullpen action...likely to be in early and often after Soto gets chased...who ranks dead last in FIP/xFIP since June 1st piling up a -0.4 WAR, they allow the most hard contact at 42% of batted balls.  Everyone knows of how hideous the Mets bullpen has been in the recent past...doing all they could to lose every game they appear, leading or trailing...well the Tigers bullpen is RIGHT on their heels with a -3.00 win probability added, compared to the Mets nearly -5.00

    Finally, on the front of "get a little help from our friends"...the Tigers have been hitting the ball semi-decently at home over the past week, complining an over .300 BA, .200 ISO, .357 BABIP, .346 wOBA, and 117 wRC+ over the last  week of play.

    All in all, the value at a 10 in this situation as we head to a much needed break for the players is immense and unlikely to stick around before 10.5 pops up later this AM

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