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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (975) Chicago White Sox at (976) Philadelphia Phillies
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: August 2, 2019 7PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-100)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

     3% Take Philadelphia on the RUN LINE (#976)

    The White Sox have played last place caliber baseball since the All Star Break.  They came out of the break losing seven in a row.  After a very brief hot streak - winning three out of four -- they’ve now lost four straight and eight of their last nine.  It’s surely worth noting that 14 of those 16 post-break losses have come by multi-run margins; in large part because this lineup is ice cold.

    The results do not lie.  The White Sox produced three runs or less in all 14 of their 16 post break losses, including each of their last eight defeats.  They’ve scored more than five runs only twice since before the All Star Break.  When you can’t score, you can’t win and it’s hard to cover run lines in defeat.

    White Sox starter Ivan Nova is coming off back-2-back strong outings – both at home.  His last three road starts have all been ugly.  The bullpen behind him can’t be trusted at hitter friendly Citizens Bank Ballpark.  And the Phillies bats are clicking on all cylinders right now; pounding out 31 runs in their last five games.

    The betting markets don’t love Jason Vargas—that’s why we’re getting a ‘pick ‘em’ price on the Run Line in a ‘class difference’ type of matchup.   And yet this savvy veteran continues to keep his team in every game he pitches, allowing three earned runs or less 15 times in his last 16 starts.  I’m expecting his Phillies debut to continue that trend, and the improvements to the Philadelphia bullpen at the trading deadline are already starting to show.  Expect a blowout!  Take the Phillies on the Run Line.

     

    Line Parameter: 3% at -1.5 (-115) or lower, 2% if the line goes up to -116 or higher

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