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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (113) NORTHWESTERN at (114) WISCONSIN
    Sport/League: CFB
    Date/Time: September 28, 2019 12PM EDT
    Play: 4% – NORTHWESTERN 24.0 (-110)
    Play Rating: 4%
    Result: Win

    4%  Take Northwestern (#113)

    We’ve seen four previous meetings between Paul Chryst and Pat Fitzgerald over the last four seasons.  Northwestern won twice, 13-7 and 31-17.  Wisconsin won twice, 21-7 and 33-24.  The Badgers were -12.5 and -15.5 in their two home games during this span, never even sniffing a pointspread cover in either contest.

    This year, the line is Wisconsin -24.  I’m not buying that Wisconsin is waaaaaaay better than they’ve been while going 10-3, 11-3, 13-1 and 8-5 over the last four years.  Nor am I buying the concept that Northwestern is waaaaaaaay down compared to their recent results: 10-3, 7-6, 10-3 and 9-5 over the last four years.  But that’s exactly what the betting markets are asking us to believe here after these two teams disparate starts.

    Make no mistake about it -- this is most assuredly a Northwestern spot.  The Wildcats have been moneymaking underdogs throughout the Fitzgerald era; 11-3 ATS in their last 14 tries as road dogs.  That includes the brutal beat in the closing seconds at Stanford to open the season.  They lost badly to Michigan State last week (no betting bandwagon here, big betting bandwagon for Wisconsin); 9-4 ATS following a loss in their last 13 tries.  And the Badgers went ‘All-In’ last week to avenge their blowout loss at Michigan in 2018.  It’ll be hard for Wisconsin to match that level of effort, intensity and execution two weeks in a row.  Too many points!  Take Northwestern.

    Line Parameter: 4% at +24 or higher, 3% at +23.5 or lower

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