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  • Event: (265) Tennessee Titans at (266) Atlanta Falcons
    Sport/League: NFL
    Date/Time: September 29, 2019 1PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Atlanta Falcons -4 (-108)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%  Take Atlanta (#266)

    It’s ‘circle the wagons’ time in Atlanta this week; a good time to ‘buy low’ on a capable team.  The Falcons went to the Super Bowl in 2016 and were a playoff team in 2017.  Last year, they were an injury riddled disaster area and still won seven games; with expectations of returning to the playoffs again in 2019. 

    But their disappointing 1-2 start – both losses coming on the road, where they didn’t play well last year either – has left Atlanta facing a legitimate ‘must win’ game in September.  QB Matt Ryan, following the loss at Indy last Sunday:  "I think everybody's angry with not performing the way that we can.  The penalties, turnovers, those kinds of things, we've had too much of that in the first couple weeks of the season. We had too much of that today."

    Atlanta’s offense is a completely different animal on the turf at Mercedes Benz Stadium – this team is built for the fast track.  That’s a big part of the reason why, even in the midst of last year’s disappointments, they still hung 31+ five times in eight home games.  That’s a big part of the reason why they won and covered their only previous home game this season; a team loaded with offensive playmakers.  Their opponent is not.

    This is the best offense the Titans have faced this year.  That’s not the case for battle tested Atlanta, who has already faced three likely playoff teams, taking a step down in class here.  Without elite left tackle Taylor Lewan (NFL mandated suspension for one more game), Marcus Mariota has looked lost in the pocket, struggling mightily in each of their last two ballgames while under constant pressure.  I expect the Falcons to get their fair share of touchdowns in this one, and I don’t think the Titans can trade scores with ‘em.  Take the Falcons

    Line Parameter: 3% at -5.5 or lower, 2% at -6 or higher