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  • Event: (271) Minnesota Vikings at (272) Chicago Bears
    Sport/League: NFL
    Date/Time: September 29, 2019 4PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Minnesota Vikings 2.0 (-108)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%  Take Minnesota (#271)

    The Bears are coming off a short week after blowing out the Redskins on Monday Night Football.  Matt Nagy’s offense still isn’t fixed – not even close; a team that is #29 in the NFL, averaging just 1.39 points per drive.  Long term, Soldier Field has been one of the weakest homefields in the NFL, and the Bears lost SU and ATS here as a favorite already this year on opening night.  Yes, Chicago is elite defensively, but it’s not like they’ve played a bunch of great offenses through the first three weeks, because none of their previous opponents is a decent rushing team.  The Vikings are.

    Minnesota is treating this game like it was their Super Bowl; a ‘max intensity’ contest vs a foe off a MNF win.  They were swept by the Bears last year, including a Week 17 home loss that kept the Vikings out of the playoffs.  They struggled on the road in their road opener at Green Bay, already 0-1 in a division they expect to win.  Mike Zimmer has been a great underdog coach throughout his tenure with the Vikings; 64% ATS as a dog on the highway since he arrived in Minnesota in 2014. 

    Chicago’s defense is truly elite, allowing just 4.7 yards per play.  Minnesota’s isn’t far behind at 5.1 yards per play allowed; both in the top quartile of the NFL.  Offensively, there’s a world of difference.  Dalvin Cook has been a monster; Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are – by far – the best WR duo that Chicago has seen this season.  The Vikings, as a result, are averaging 6.4 yards per play – top quartile – while the Bears are averaging just 4.6 ypp (bottom quartile).  Expect that difference to show up on the scoreboard!  Take the Vikings.

    Line Parameter: 3% at +1 or higher, 2% at pk or if Minnesota goes off the favorite

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