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  • Event: (119) CENTRAL MICHIGAN at (120) WESTERN MICHIGAN
    Sport/League: CFB
    Date/Time: September 28, 2019 12PM EDT
    Play: 3% – CENTRAL MICHIGAN 17 (-110)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    3%  Take Central Michigan (#119)

    The bottom fell out in Mt Pleasant last year, as Central Michigan went from four straight years of bowl appearances into a dismal 1-11 campaign.  That 1-11 mark included a truly ugly loss to one of their two biggest rivals, bombed at home in a 35-10 defeat against the same Broncos team they’ll face on Saturday.

    Following the season, the Chippewas fired their head coach, replacing him with savvy veteran Jim McElwain.  But Central Michigan looked every bit as bad in their FBS opener at Wisconsin, losing 61-0.  The betting markets that weren’t very high on this team to begin with (to put it mildly) crashed even further.

    That was then, this is now.  Since that blowout loss at Wisconsin, the Chippewas have blown out Akron and hung tough at Miami-FL, losing by only five points as 30.5 point underdogs despite a -2 turnover differential.  QB David Moore is “100% good to go” per his quote, and this Chips defense is showing some ‘bet-on’ potential moving forward.  Right now, Central Michigan has major potential as an under-the-radar under-valued commodity in the college football betting marketplace.

    There is no homefield edge in this series whatsoever – the road team has gone 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings, including SU wins by Central in Kalamazoo in 2013 and 2017 and a spread covering two point loss in 2015.  The last 14 meetings between these two teams have all been lined at -7 or less; a pointspread that is out of whack with both series history and current realities. Expect a battle, not a blowout.  Take Central Michigan.

    Line Parameter: 3% at +16 or higher, 2% at +15.5 or lower

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