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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (451) Baltimore Ravens at (452) Pittsburgh Steelers
    Sport/League: NFL
    Date/Time: October 6, 2019 1PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Pittsburgh Steelers 3.5 (-115)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    3%  Take Pittsburgh (#452)

    The numbers alone make a strong case for Pittsburgh catching more than a field goal at home.  For example, an amazing 13 of the last 25 meetings between these two teams – all with Mike Tomlin facing off against John Harbaugh -- have been decided by three points or less.  Pittsburgh has consistently been a strong underdog under Tomlin, 20-8 ATS with a couple of pushes in their last 30 tries.  Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in their last six tries as chalk, 0-5 ATS off a loss and 0-3 ATS in AFC North games with Lamar Jackson behind center.  Based on the trends alone, the Steelers are clearly worth a look.

    But it’s not the trends that got me to the betting window with Pittsburgh plus the points – it’s the matchups on the field.  Pittsburgh’s revamped defense, with EIGHT former first round draft choices starting, has looked dominant of late.  They forced five turnovers against the 49ers two weeks ago, then held Cinci to a single field goal last week.  This defense has elite potential, for sure.

    The Ravens defense has been downright ugly.  They’ve allowed more yards per completion than any team in the league; without CB Tavon Young and potentially CB Jimmy Smith ad DT Brandon Williams again this week.   The run defense has been every bit as suspect, allowing 4.9 yards per carry, compared to the Steelers 4.1 ypc allowed.   Baltimore’s most recent pointspread cover came all the way back in Week 1, blowing out Miami.  They’ve been overvalued ever since…..Take the Steelers.

    3% at +3.5 or higher, 2% at +3 or lower