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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (453) Chicago Bears at (454) Oakland Raiders
    Sport/League: NFL
    Date/Time: October 6, 2019 1PM EDT
    Play: 4% – Chicago Bears -5.0 (-110)
    Play Rating: 4%
    Result: Loss

    4%  Take Chicago (#453)

    To say that Jon Gruden has not been good off a SU win is something of an understatement.  Since returning to Oakland, the Raiders had won five previous games prior to last week’s shocker in Indianapolis.  Following those wins, the Raiders have gone 0-5 SU and ATS, losing by 16, 17, 14, 32 and 18 points the following week.  This is NOT a team that we can trust following a victory, plain and simple.  And we certainly shouldn’t forget the Raiders trip to London last year – a complete ‘no-show’ game that they lost 27-3.

    Khalil Mack and the Bears defense are, quite simply, wrecking teams right now.  Chicago’s last two opponents have, quite simply, been unable to move the football at all.  It’s not like their first two opponents moved the ball either; a defense that hasn’t allowed more than 15 points in a game yet this season.  Chicago’s 4.5 yards per play allowed ranks #2 in the NFL.  Nobody has been able to run against the Bears at all, meaning that Derek Carr is going to need to provide most of the offensive production here but Carr’s long term statistical profile against good defenses is downright lousy.

    The betting markets have said that there’s basically no difference, pointspread wise, between Chase Daniel and Mitch Trubisky.  I agree with that assessment wholeheartedly, and the Raiders defense has more than their fair share of holes, particularly against the pass.  Expect a Bears victory in London by a TD or more.  Take the Bears.

    Line Parameter: 4% at -5.5 or lower, 3% at -6 or higher