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  • Event: (373) TCU at (374) IOWA STATE
    Sport/League: CFB
    Date/Time: October 5, 2019 12PM EDT
    Play: 4% – IOWA STATE -3.0 (-115)
    Play Rating: 4%
    Result: Win

    4%  Take Iowa State (#374)

    Make no mistake about it – it’s circle the wagons time in Ames, Iowa this week.  The Cyclones were expected to have their best team of the decade this year; a Top 25 team in the polls before their loss to Iowa.  I still think they actually DO have their best team of the decade, yet Matt Campbell’s squad is just 2-2 after losing to the Hawkeyes and then last week at Baylor by a combined total of three points.   They were also tested severely in their opener, escaping past Northern Iowa by just a field goal.  The two losses and the tougher than expected battle against an FCS school has left the betting markets with the wrong impression about this Iowa State team, giving us a relatively cheap price to lay with them here.

    The Cyclones defense has been every bit as good as advertised, holding foes to just 4.64 yards per play; ranked #12 in all of college football.  Against both the run and the pass, the Cyclones have been shutting everybody down.  Gary Patterson’s TCU squad is somewhat limited offensively; masked by the fact that this team hasn’t faced anything resembling a strong defense through their first four games.  QB Max Duggan is a pedestrian talent; no receiver has caught more than 11 balls and basically, if an opposing defense can contain RB Darius Anderson, the Horned Frogs aren’t going to trade points with anybody.  Off their blowout win against lowly Kansas, the markets are ‘buying’ on TCU this week while they are selling on Iowa State.  I’m quite comfortable betting it the other way, backing the superior team in a prime bounceback spot.  Take Iowa State.

    Line Parameter: 4% at -3.5 or lower, 3% at -4 or higher.