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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (365) Air Force at (366) NAVY
    Sport/League: CFB
    Date/Time: October 5, 2019 3PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Air Force -3.5 (-105)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%  Take Air Force (#365)

    When these two teams met last year, Air Force quite simply dominated Navy, a 35-7 blowout.  It was the Middies worst offensive showing of the season; by a fairly wide margin; held to just 178 yards and nine first downs.  Air Force is better than they were last year.  Navy is not.  We’ve already seen this Falcons team pull the outright upset at Colorado, holding the Buffs to 23 in an OT affair.  We’ve seen them compete on an even field at Boise State, hanging tough with the Broncos while holding Boise to 17 first downs and 355 yards.  It’s that surprisingly solid Air Force defense that has been allowing them to take care of business ATS.  These are not teams that Navy would be capable of hanging with, let alone beating.

    The Navy program has been in steady decline in recent seasons.  They won 11 games in 2015, 9 in 2016, 7 in 2017 and only 3 last year.  After beating a pair of patsies to open the season, last week, Navy faced their first real test of the 2019 campaign at Memphis.  They jumped out to an early 20-7 lead before getting outscored 28-3 the rest of the way.  Navy’s defense lacks speed, allowing big plays in bunches.  They’ve allowed 35 and 45 against Air Force in the last two seasons, not primed for a significantly better showing here.   Navy’s offense lacks playmakers – nothing but long, ‘grind-it-out’ drives for the Midshipmen these days; not easy to do against the Falcons defense.  Look for Air Force to control this game, winning by a TD or more.  Take Air Force.

    Line Parameter: 3% at -3.5 or lower, 2% at -4 or higher

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