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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (339) TROY at (340) MISSOURI
    Sport/League: CFB
    Date/Time: October 5, 2019 4PM EDT
    Play: 3% – (339) TROY at (340) MISSOURI Total Over 66.0 (-107)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%  Take Missouri – Troy OVER (#339-340)

    When Missouri steps down in defensive class, their point totals have been astronomical.  In Barry Odom’s four years on the job, the Tigers have hung 72 on Missouri State, 68 on Idaho, 52 on UConn, 61 on Eastern Michigan, 79 on Delaware State, 45 on Middle Tennessee, 51 on UT-Martin, 40 and 31 (despite a turnover filled effort) on Wyoming, 40 on Purdue, 65 on Memphis and 50 on Southeast Missouri State.  That’s a strong, consistent track record of two things – scoring TD’s in bunches and continuing to score TD’s in bunches even with a big lead; playing the full 60 minutes.  Coming off a bye, I’m expecting Kelly Bryant and the uptempo Tigers offense (averaging a whopping 80 plays per game) to hang six or seven TD’s on Troy’s Sun Belt level defense this week – or more.

    The Trojans have faced two solid offensive teams so far this season.  Their game against Southern Miss was a 47-42 shootout that flew Over the total by more than five TD’s.  Both teams gained more than 500 yards of offense.  Their game against Arkansas State last week was comparable: 50-43 with both teams gaining more than 500 yards of offense and the Over cashing by only 4 ½ touchdowns.  No, Troy’s offense isn’t likely to get into the 40’s against an SEC defense, but Troy is playing much faster this year under Chip Lindsay (78 plays per game) and we’ve seen them get to 24 at Nebraska and at LSU in 2017 and 2018.  If they get to 24 here, we’re likely to cash this Over bet with room to spare.  Even with thunderstorms in the forecast (keeping this total from skyrocketing), this has all the makings of a high-octane touchdown fest!  Take the OVER.

    Line Parameter: 3% at 68.5 or lower, 2% at 69 or higher

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