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Recent Play Details

Nick Borrman
  • Event: Goias at Botafogo
    Sport/League: SOC
    Date/Time: October 9, 2019 6PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Botafogo (+115)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    Brazil Serie A

    (208229) Goias at (208230) Botafogo

    Goias won the reverse fixture 1-0 at home and I think this is good value to take a chance on Botafogo returning the favor here.  Botafogo dominated the possession in that first match but Goias had the slight advantage on shots.  However, at home I like Botafogo to control both numbers.  Goias has won five straight matches, but have been terrible on the road all year with a 3-2-7 (W-D-L) record and -16 goal differential.  They average just 3.1 shots on goal per game, compared to the league average of 3.7 on the road and they concede 6.0 shots on goal per game compared to the league average of 5.3 for road teams.  They are tied for the most goals conceded away from home.

    Botafogo has lost four straight, most recently against Fluminense, 1-0, but that game was very evenly played and the score could have gone either way.  The home team has won 6 of the last 7 H2H meetings in this series and even though the teams are trending in opposite directions, there is a reason we are seeing Botafogo as the slight -0.25 favorite.

    TAKE BOTAFOGO TO WIN (ML or -0.5)

    Line Parameter: 3% play any + number.  You can also take the -0.25 probably around -115 or -120 to protect half the wager against the draw, but I'm going for the full win here.

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