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Teddy Covers
  • Event: (913) St. Louis Cardinals at (914) Atlanta Braves
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: October 9, 2019 5PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Atlanta Braves +100
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    3%  Take Atlanta (#914)

    This line is clearly affected by the history of these two franchises.  Yes, the Braves haven’t won a playoff series this century while the Cardinals franchise has been exceptional in elimination games.  But the current players on these two rosters (with a handful of exceptions) have had little part in that history.  Today’s game will be won or lost by THIS YEAR’s teams, not previous versions.

    And this year’s Braves are better than this year’s Cardinals.  Sure, Atlanta couldn’t smack a clutch hit in Game 4, but this Braves lineup averaged more than a half run per game more than the St Louis lineup this season.  Mike Foltynewicz allowed only three baserunners in seven shutout innings against the Cards last week, needing only 81 pitches to do it.  He’s rested and ready today and Brian Snitker doesn’t have to use his bullpen at all in an elimination game – he can use starters tonight if he chooses.

    Jack Flaherty is getting all kinds of respect from the betting markets here, despite the fact that the Braves hit him last week AND he’s coming off a draining 117 pitch effort.  I understand that Flaherty was the NL Pitcher of the Month in August AND September.   I also understand that he’s primed for a less than stellar effort here in a short turnaround second look and the Cards staff behind him is every bit as suspect as the Braves ‘pen tonight.  The Braves deserve to be the favorites today, plain and simple.  Take Atlanta.

    Line Parameter: 3% at -109 or lower, 2% at -110 or higher.